A United Ireland Plebiscite Cannot Become 'Another Brexit', Experts Alert

Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."