Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Fuels Villa's Improbable Push for Glory

It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of the side's wider issues.

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the in-form star swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six games, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.